Gold, Silver, Oil, and War: Peter Schiff’s Warning to Investors

Gold is supposed to shine in times of war. But during the first full week of the Iran conflict, that is not what happened.

Instead of soaring, gold ended the week lower. Silver also pulled back, mining stocks were hit even harder, and many investors were left wondering why precious metals sold off just as geopolitical tensions intensified.

At the same time, oil surged sharply, stocks weakened, and a shockingly weak U.S. jobs report added another layer of concern about the economy. Reuters reported that Brent crude climbed above $92 a barrel, while the Labor Department said the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, badly missing expectations.

In his latest commentary, Peter Schiff argues that this apparent contradiction is actually bullish for gold over the longer term. In his view, the market is focusing on the wrong signal.

Rather than treating the selloff in gold and silver as a warning sign, Schiff says investors should see it as a temporary shakeout before inflation, deficits, recession fears, and dollar weakness reassert themselves.

Watch Peter Schiff’s Commentary

Why Did Gold Fall If War Is Supposed To Be Bullish?

That is the central question Schiff tries to answer.

His argument is that the move looked less like a breakdown in the precious metals bull market and more like a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction. Traders had already been bidding up gold and silver ahead of the outbreak of war, anticipating that a major geopolitical event would send safe-haven assets sharply higher.

Once the conflict officially escalated, many of those same traders appear to have taken profits instead.

There is some evidence that markets broadly behaved this way. Gold rose earlier in the week on safe-haven buying, but Reuters noted that by Thursday prices had reversed lower as higher Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar offset some of that war-driven demand.

By Friday, gold had bounced off its lows after the weak payrolls report, but it was still on track for its first weekly loss in several weeks.

Schiff’s point is that the first move is not always the lasting move. In his telling, traders sold the news, but the deeper economic consequences of war have not yet been fully priced in.

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Oil Did What Many Expected Gold To Do

One market that did react the way many expected was oil.

As the conflict intensified and fears grew over disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged. Reuters reported that Brent crude hit $92.69 a barrel, the highest since October 2023, and analysts at Goldman Sachs warned prices could move above $100 if the disruption continues. Barclays, according to Reuters, said Brent could reach $120 if hostilities drag on.

That matters because Schiff’s broader thesis is not just that war is bullish for gold in the abstract. His argument is that war becomes bullish for gold when it drives up the costs that eventually feed inflation, deficits, and monetary debasement.

In other words, he is less interested in the headline “war” than in the chain reaction that follows: higher oil, more expensive transportation and manufacturing, more fiscal strain, more pressure on policymakers, and a weaker foundation for the dollar over time.

Schiff Says The Market Is Still Too Optimistic

A big theme in Schiff’s video is that markets still seem to believe this conflict will be short, manageable, and economically contained.

He clearly disagrees.

Schiff argues that many traders are underestimating the likelihood of a longer and more disruptive conflict, one that keeps energy prices elevated and puts more stress on both the U.S. economy and global markets. That concern is not unique to Schiff.

Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said markets may need “a couple of weeks” to fully digest the economic implications of the Iran war, adding that he was surprised by how muted some of the initial reactions were.

That muted reaction may be one reason Schiff believes the selloff in mining stocks was overdone. Gold miners tend to be more volatile than bullion itself, and in a nervous market they often get hit hard even when the longer-term case for higher metal prices remains intact.

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Mining Stocks Took A Bigger Hit Than Gold

One of the more interesting parts of Schiff’s commentary is his focus on mining stocks.

Gold was down on the week, but miners fell much more sharply. Schiff points to that as another sign that sentiment remains fragile and speculative money is quick to exit at the first sign of weakness.

That lines up with the broader risk-off tone in the market. Reuters and AP both reported that equities struggled as oil spiked and economic worries mounted, with smaller and more economically sensitive stocks taking especially notable losses.

Schiff’s interpretation is that miners were not collapsing because the long-term case for gold had broken. Rather, he sees the move as an exaggerated response by traders who still do not fully believe in the metals rally.

For readers who follow this sector, that is one of the main takeaways from his video: Schiff believes the real opportunity may not just be in bullion, but in the stocks tied to it.

Weak Jobs Data Added Fuel To Schiff’s Recession Warning

Schiff also ties the precious metals story to the latest economic data.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February, while the unemployment rate held at 4.4%. 

The report also showed weakness in manufacturing and continued softness in federal government employment. The Wall Street Journal noted that private-sector payrolls fell by 86,000, making the report even more concerning beneath the surface.

For Schiff, this is proof that the economy was already weakening before the war escalated. In his view, the conflict simply adds another inflationary and recessionary shock on top of an already fragile backdrop.

That is what makes his thesis more than just a simple “gold rises during war” argument. He is saying the war could worsen an economy that was already losing momentum, while also making inflation harder to contain due to energy costs and deficit spending.

The Dollar’s Reaction Wasn’t Strong Enough To Change Schiff’s Mind

The U.S. dollar did catch a safe-haven bid during the turmoil, which helped pressure gold in the short term. Reuters reported that the dollar was headed for one of its strongest weekly gains in about a year as investors sought safety amid the conflict.

But Schiff argues that this kind of dollar strength is likely temporary.

His longer-term view is that war-related spending, larger deficits, and inflation pressures will ultimately weigh on the currency rather than strengthen it. That fits with one of his longstanding themes: that structural fiscal weakness and de-dollarization trends matter more over time than short bursts of safe-haven demand.

Whether readers agree with him or not, that is a key part of why he sees the latest dip in gold as good news rather than bad. In his framework, the market is still responding to the immediate shock, not the lasting consequences.

Schiff’s View On Bitcoin: A Bounce, Not A Breakout

Schiff also used the selloff in metals and rebound in Bitcoin to take another shot at crypto.

He dismissed Bitcoin’s move as a dead-cat bounce and argued that if inflation and war-related deficits become the real story, gold will eventually outperform risk assets and speculative trades.

That part of the argument is more opinionated and will obviously divide readers, but it fits with his broader worldview that hard assets should benefit more than crypto in a stagflationary environment.

For an audience reading this on a precious metals site, that contrast helps sharpen his message. Schiff is telling viewers not to confuse short-term price action with a shift in the bigger macro picture.

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So Why Does Schiff Think This Is “Good News”?

Because in his view, panic selling in a market with improving long-term fundamentals creates opportunity.

He sees the decline in gold, silver, and especially mining stocks as a temporary misread by traders who have not yet fully absorbed what higher oil, softer labor data, larger deficits, and a prolonged conflict could mean over the months ahead.

The market may have sold first and asked questions later. Schiff thinks those questions will eventually lead investors back to precious metals.

That does not mean his timeline is guaranteed to play out. Markets can remain volatile, and war-related headlines can push assets sharply in either direction from day to day. But his core point is clear: the initial selloff does not necessarily invalidate the bull case. In fact, he believes it may strengthen it.

Schiff's Message

Peter Schiff’s latest commentary is ultimately a contrarian message.

Gold fell on war news, and many traders treated that as a disappointment. Schiff sees it differently. He believes the market is reacting to the event, but not yet to the consequences. 

If oil stays elevated, inflation proves stickier, deficits widen further, and the economy continues to weaken, he thinks gold, silver, and mining stocks could still be among the biggest long-term winners. Current market data at least supports part of the setup he is describing: oil has surged, stocks have come under pressure, and the latest jobs report points to a labor market that may be softer than many expected.

For investors who already believe in the long-term case for precious metals, Schiff’s message is simple: a sharp selloff during a week of war is not necessarily a reason to panic. It may be the kind of dislocation that creates the next buying opportunity.